Pandemic Plan
An influenza pandemic is a worldwide outbreak or epidemic caused by a strain of influenza virus to which few if any humans have immunity developed by prior exposure. Influenza pandemics occur predictably but at unpredictable intervals; three occurred during the 20th century. The most serious pandemic on record, the "Spanish flu" of 1918-1919 caused an estimated 20-100 million deaths worldwide and over 500,000 deaths in the United States.
Many pandemics are believed to occur when a strain of influenza circulating among birds (avian influenza), acquires the ability to cause serious illness and to spread effectively among people. Beginning in 1997 and continuing through 2005, a widespread outbreak of avian influenza (H5N1) has affected birds in multiple Asian countries. That strain has demonstrated the ability to cause lethal disease among humans and created concern that it might evolve into a strain of virus capable of causing a pandemic. It is not known whether that will occur, but it is certain that another influenza pandemic will afflict humans at some point in the future.
An influenza pandemic of the severity of the 1918 pandemic could cause over a million Utahans to become ill and result in over 500,000 outpatient doctor visits, 15,000 hospitalizations, and 4,000 deaths over the course of a year. Critical assumptions used in developing this plan included: 1) outbreaks would probably occur widely across the state and nation, limiting the ability to share resources among jurisdictions; 2) vaccine would not be available until several months had elapsed; 3) shortages of critical medicines and other supplies would occur, including antiviral medications; 4) schools could be closed and the educational process could be threatened.
The goals of this plan are, first, to protect the students, and second, educate the students. The plan is intended to coordinate with global and national plans developed by the World Health Organization (WHO), U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS), and the State of Utah and Southwest Utah Public Health Department.
Since 1997, the World Health Organization and many national health agencies have been monitoring the incidence of a particularly deadly form of avian flu known as H5N1. This form of influenza is currently spreading across the world's bird population, while this flu has not had widespread human impact; it has killed more than half of those humans who have been infected. It is important to plan for the possibility that this form of influenza will become a more widespread human problem. Nationwide, states, communities, organizations, schools and individuals have been urged to plan responses to a possible worldwide "pandemic flu."